US Dollar Forecast – EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD. Where’s next?


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Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair

The EUR/USD pair lacked directional conviction on Friday, settling above its 200-day simple moving average at 1.0840. To boost sentiment towards the Euro, this bottom should remain intact, as breaking it could lead to a drop towards 1.0770. If the weakness continues, all eyes will be on the 1.0700 level.

Conversely, if the bulls stage a turnaround and push prices higher, initial resistance runs from 1.0910 to 1.0930. Sellers are likely to defend this area aggressively on another retest; However, a successful breakout could pave the way for a rise towards 1.1020.

Technical chart of EUR/USD

EUR/USD chart prepared using TradingView

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Technical analysis of the USD/CAD pair

The USD/CAD pair has risen sharply since late 2023, but its upward momentum is fading after a failed attempt to clear trendline resistance and a key Fibonacci level near 1.3540, a rejection that triggered a modest pullback towards the 200-day SMA. . At 1.3475.

Although the short-term outlook remains constructive, prices need to stay above the 200-day SMA to maintain this bias; Failure to do so may attract new sellers into the market, creating the right conditions for a pullback towards 1.3385.

If the rise continues, resistance is at 1.3540 as we mentioned previously. While buyers may have difficulty pushing the exchange rate above this area, a clear breakout could send the pair towards the 1.3570 level. With more strength, there is potential to advance towards 1.3625.

Technical chart of the USD/CAD pair

USD/CAD chart created using TradingView

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair declined from late December until early this week, but has rebounded from technical support at 0.6525. The pivotal point now is whether the pair can close above the 0.6570-0.6580 range on a weekly basis. If that happens, there could be a potential rally towards 0.6650 and then 0.6700 on the horizon.

On the flip side, if sellers re-emerge and push prices below the 100-day SMA near 0.6525, the next important support area appears at 0.6500, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the higher October/December wave. Below this threshold, all eyes will be on 0.6460.

AUD/USD technical chart

AUD/USD chart created using TradingView

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