- ECB President Largarde speaks on Wednesday, January 17, 2024, and Villeroy as well
- China’s population decline and its economic consequences: a growing concern
- From the Fed on Wednesday, we get Williams, Barr, Bowman, and the Beige Book
- The Global Times tabloid highlights the strong internal dynamics of the Chinese economy
- Find out how data surprises move markets and impact investments – US retail sales
- China Industrial Output for December +6.8% YoY (expected +6.6%) Retail Sales +7.4% (expected +8.0%)
- China’s fourth quarter 2023 GDP is 5.2% year on year
- House prices in China fell again in December: -0.4% m/m (previous -0.3%)
- The People’s Bank of China set the midpoint of USD/CNY today at 7.1168 (vs. estimate of 7.1986)
- Singapore Non-Oil Domestic Exports for December (NODX) -2.8% m/m (-1.5% expected)
- The US law requiring reporting of all cryptocurrency transactions over $10,0004 will not apply now
- Consumers in China to save more and spend less during the second half of the year
- UBS raises S&P 500 forecast to 5150, expects higher returns amid lower interest rates
- Japan Data – Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Index +6 in January from +12 in December
- Chinese Premier Li Qiang has already announced the country’s economic growth figure for 2023
- More US air strikes target Houthi terrorists in Yemen (Tuesday local time)
- Retail sales in New Zealand fell in December
- Forexlive Americas FX News Cover: Waller is pessimistic, but in no rush to cut
- Trade Ideas Topic – Wednesday, January 17, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
We had a lot of data from China today.
- Home prices in China in December fell by 0.45% month-on-month, a deeper level than November’s -0.37% decline, and the fastest decline since February 2015. December’s decline was the sixth in a row.
- GDP for 2023 met the government target by about 5%, reaching 5.2%. The Q4 q/was a very minor miss
- Economic data for December was mixed, with retail sales weak and industrial production outperforming
- China’s population will decrease by 2 million in 2023
More on all of that in the points above.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has begun publishing the youth unemployment rate again, and the rate for 16-24 year olds who are former students of the school was 14.9% in December.
As the year progresses, annual growth of China’s main economic indicators in 2023:
GDP: ↑5.2%
- Industrial output: ↑4.6%
- Retail sales:↑7.2%
- Fixed assets investment: ↑3%
- CPI: ↑0.2%
- Per capita disposable income: ↑6.3%
- Unemployment rate: ↓ to 5.2%
Keep in mind that with China in the grip of deflation and loan interest rates at 3.45% for one year and 4.20% for five years, real interest rates in China are much higher than in the US, Europe, UK, Australia…. Well, basically everywhere. While economic growth in 2024 is expected to be challenging, there is scope to strengthen both fiscal policy (mindful of debt concerns) and monetary policy (mindful of fears of a depreciating yuan and capital outflows).
Otherwise, the news flow was weak and had no impact.
For major foreign exchange rates, the dominant flow was another, albeit small, gain for the US dollar across the major currency board.
Stocks in the region fell.
In American politics, the Senate began discussing a temporary spending bill. Pundits expect final passage likely on Thursday, before Friday’s deadline.
USD/JPY remains above 147.00: