Kobe, a prominent figure in cryptocurrency trading circles known for his insightful and often accurate predictions, made… mail on August 23, 2023, which defined the Bitcoin ETF scenario to an eerily accurate degree.
Kobe’s post, which delved into the complexities of Bitcoin (BTC) and the expected approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, demonstrated his deep understanding of market dynamics.
His prediction of a significant rise in the price of Bitcoin, which will likely reach $50,000 by the end of the year, coupled with a detailed analysis of the potential impact of ETF approval, reflects a level of analysis that few in the field can match.
Insight
The trader also predicted when the SEC would approve ETFs, saying at the time that it was essentially “free” to buy bitcoin until then and recommending selling as soon as approval comes in, or shortly before.
Kobe wrote:
“Anyway, the BTC ETF will definitely be approved, I am 99% confident but it will be done at the latest possible date (i.e. when they can no longer delay but have to make a decision).”
He added that once the ETFs are approved, it will be a “death knell” that will likely push the price lower due to high levels of selling pressure coming from Grayscale’s GBTC holders, who have been waiting for an opportunity to sell once it is about to be full again. Other.
Given the price action, following this advice would have been a better move in hindsight. This sparked widespread admiration from crypto Twitter. However, Kobe feels the admiration is unwarranted.
Kobe’s reflective response
in Honest response Amid the social media buzz, Kobe emphasized the dynamic and often uncertain nature of financial forecasts.
“I can’t even remember, man,” he began, highlighting the challenge of keeping up with ever-changing market views. He pointed out how easy it is to find past forecasts that appear accurate in hindsight, given frequent shifts in opinions and market conditions.
He warned against over-reliance on isolated predictions, saying:
“The screenshot alone looks cool but it doesn’t actually mean much, you know, basically missing half a year’s worth of bullshit and other factors that pollute thinking.”
His comments offer a humbling reminder of the fleeting nature of market analysis. Despite his analysis, he said he did not adhere to this thesis in the following months. Kobe added:
“The truth (at least for me) is that it’s very easy for me to unlearn my own opinions after 3 weeks, come up with new ideas that I feel opposed to, etc., so it’s just a complete mess of doubt, hesitation, and overthinking.” Things along the way.”
This perspective resonates deeply in the cryptocurrency community, where rapid changes and volatility are the norm. Coby’s thinking about the process of forming and reforming opinions in response to new information and market shifts highlights the complex and non-linear nature of financial forecasting.
Cobie’s full post is available to read below: