- A new report has urged the UK government to take steps to mitigate the risks posed by a Chinese invasion of Taiwan amid fears it could devastate the global economy.
- Taiwan heads to the polls on Saturday in a vote considered crucial to the country’s future
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would leave 500,000 people dead, devastate the global economy and spread Beijing’s already growing influence, an expert warned in a new report ahead of key elections on Saturday.
Darren Spink, a researcher specializing in Indo-Pacific studies, warned that such an attack would upend sea routes and trade, disrupt global supply chains and, most importantly, could destroy semiconductor foundries in Taiwan.
He said this would have a detrimental impact on the UK economy – which is increasingly reliant on maintaining relations across the Taiwan Strait as it continues to turn post-Brexit into the Indo-Pacific region.
Taiwan produces 90% of the world’s advanced chips, and is the brains behind all modern electronic equipment, and experts have described any semiconductor shortage as “catastrophic” for both the UK and the global economy.
Furthermore, Spink warns that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would allow the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to “project force across Taiwan in the First Island Chain and north toward Japan” and in the Second Island Chain.
The human cost will also be devastating. The Pentagon estimated that up to 500,000 people could be killed in the event of a conflict between China and Taiwan, while millions more could be forced to flee the region.
Spink’s warning came in a report released this week ahead of Taiwan’s general elections, which will be held on January 13.
The vote is being watched intently from Beijing to Washington because the next president will determine the island’s future relations with an increasingly assertive China in a turbulent region: the Indo-Pacific and the South China Sea.
China claims self-ruled Taiwan as its own territory, and fears have grown in recent years that President Xi Jinping is planning an invasion in the coming years, in the face of increasingly hostile rhetoric and a simulated blockade of the island.
Beijing has never renounced the use of force to control what it sees as rebellious territory, and Xi has said unification is inevitable.
His government warned this week that a vote for independence-leaning candidate Lai Ching-te – the front-runner – posed a “severe danger” to the island’s future.
This came despite Beijing’s call on the United States to “refrain from interfering” in the elections in Taiwan and its criticism of official visits between the island and the United States after Washington said it would send a delegation there after the elections that took place this week.
Whoever is elected on Saturday could lead Taiwan in time for invasion, with Taiwan’s foreign minister saying last year that the country was preparing for the possibility of conflict with Chinese armies in 2027.
Although much smaller than its cross-strait neighbour, Taiwan – with a population of 23.5 million – still boasts a thriving economy and democracy, and is of vital economic and strategic importance to the region.
They supply 90 percent of the world’s semiconductors, which are used in all modern consumer electronics such as phones, laptops, cars and kitchen appliances – as well as embedded systems and communications infrastructure – to name a few.
According to Spink, a PLA invasion would have dire consequences for both Taiwan and the rest of the world, which relies on shipping from both Taiwan and China, as well as Taiwan’s world-leading semiconductor industry.
In the report, titled “How Strengthened UK-Taiwan Relations Can Help Maintain Stable Cross-Strait Relations,” it urged the British government to take steps to prepare for such an eventuality, which could force the UK to protect its own interests. .
“The success of the UK’s post-Brexit Indo-Pacific orientation and its security and economic interests across the entire region increasingly depend on maintaining stable cross-strait relations between Taiwan and (…) China,” he says.
“Any change to the fragile status quo that persists in the Taiwan Strait would have a devastating impact on the region and (…) the UK’s national interests.”
A Chinese invasion or blockade of the island would “upend sea and air trade routes, disrupt global supply chains, and potentially destroy Taiwan’s semiconductor foundries,” Spink wrote, causing shortages.
This, he says – citing analysis by the Rhodium Group think tank – would be “catastrophic” for the global economy.
The effect would “dwarf” the inflationary rebound caused by the war in Ukraine, Spink explains, pointing to recent estimates that global markets would shrink by $2 trillion. The global GDP is about $100 trillion.
For the UK specifically, Spink says trade goods and services between Taiwan and the UK totaled £8.6 billion for 2022.
This would either slow or stop altogether in the event of an invasion or blockade, hitting the manufacturing and energy sectors hard.
Spink also warns of the geopolitical impact such an action by Beijing could have.
“An invasion of Taiwan would allow the PLAN to project its power across Taiwan into the First Island Chain and north toward Japan (…) and the Second Island Chain,” he writes.
He notes that Japan is a key security partner for the UK which has supported AUKUS (a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US in the Indo-Pacific region) and has cooperated with the UK and Italy on a new project. fighter jet.
Meanwhile, the second island chain – one of two “island chains” designed by America to contain Russian and Chinese influence in the region – includes Guam, a US island territory in Micronesia, in the western Pacific Ocean.
Spink points out that 60% of the world’s population lives in the Indo-Pacific region, which is expected to become “the main driver of global economic growth.”
If China takes control of Taiwan, China will be able to “exercise an enormous amount of economic and political influence over the UK’s other partners in the region.”
Referring to a US Congressional report, Spink says a successful Chinese invasion will push other US and UK partners in the region to question their existing security commitments to their allies in the West.
Spink also warns of the catastrophic human toll that would result from forced reunification.
A Pentagon report estimated that about 500,000 people would die in the event of a conflict between China and Taiwan.
Millions more will have to flee or evacuate from the region.
In September 2023, the Chinese military conducted its largest naval warfare simulation ever. It included the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong as well as 20 other warships, while dozens of warplanes violated Taiwan’s airspace.
This practice has increased speculation about how China will undertake reunification.
While an invasion has been described as a possibility, China would also suffer heavy casualties and may not be successful – with one US think tank suggesting last year that Beijing would be defeated by Taiwan, the US and Japan combined.
However, if China does invade, Taiwanese officials and cybersecurity experts say it would not limit its attacks to security forces and defense infrastructure, but would effectively cut off the island from the world.
Taiwanese authorities said government agencies face an estimated five million cyberattacks daily, which has increased in the run-up to the election.
Spink warns that an economic blockade and other hot zone tactics could make Taipei surrender to Beijing’s demands without a Chinese soldier firing a shot.
“Taiwan only maintains enough natural gas supplies for eight days, and remains vulnerable to a communications blackout if the PRC cuts undersea communications cables,” he writes.
For these reasons and more, the Spink Report offers ten suggestions the UK government should take in preparation for a potential invasion of Taiwan.
First, he says, the government should follow the US government’s lead in establishing a select committee to investigate the Chinese Communist Party’s threat to the region.
He also says the UK and its European NATO allies should increase their arms supplies to Ukraine, thus reducing the burden on the US to then allow it to help arm Taiwan’s armies.
The UK government should also encourage Taipei to increase its defense spending to 3 percent of Taiwan’s GDP, Spink says.
It also calls on the UK to cooperate further with the US and other partners and work to ensure there is no disruption to semiconductor supplies.
He says this will include: “securing alternative supplies of rare earth elements needed to manufacture chips; Blocking attempts by the Chinese Communist Party to secure semiconductor manufacturing companies in the UK; Encouraging Taiwan to better restrict the export of chips to the PRC for use in PLA military modernization and to fund research facilities for semiconductor manufacturing and advanced/emerging technologies.
The UK must also limit capital flows to China, and clearly state that any attempts by Beijing to end Taiwan’s autonomy or disrupt the status quo in the Taiwan Strait will end in a “re-evaluation of London’s relationship with Beijing”.
In the run-up to Saturday’s election, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu criticized China’s “repeated interference” in the election.
He added: “The upcoming elections in Taiwan are in the international spotlight, and the repeated (Chinese) interference is stealing the spotlight.”
“Frankly, Beijing should stop messing with other countries’ elections and hold its own,” Wu posted on social media platform X on Thursday.
Lai, who once called himself a “practical worker for Taiwan independence,” took a softer stance on the issue during his election campaign.
He has chosen instead to reiterate current President Tsai Ing-wen’s position that Taiwan is “already independent” and therefore does not need to formally declare this.
China has cut off high-level contacts with Tsai’s government over its defense of the island’s sovereignty.
Lai said on Tuesday that Taiwan could have “no illusions about peace.”
Accepting China’s “one China” principle is not true peace.