After the launch of the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), the value of the first cryptocurrency saw a decline after briefly revisiting the $49,000 level.
Attention has now turned to the short-term path of Bitcoin (BTC) price, as the cryptocurrency faces the risk of losing the crucial $40,000 support. In fact, there was widespread speculation that Bitcoin could fall further after the asset fell below $41,000 on January 20.
Looking at the Bitcoin price forecast, a cryptocurrency trading expert said Fiery tradingin TradingView In a post on January 20, he explained the potential outlook for Bitcoin hype after ETFs.
In his analysis, Fiery trading I identified the relationship between bear market bottoms and the price of Bitcoin during halving events.
By analyzing historical data, he highlighted a speculative pattern that could significantly increase the value of Bitcoin, drawing parallels with the events of the second and third halves.
For example, during the second half, the expert indicated that the price rose 300% from the bottom, while in the third half it was 200% from the bottom.
He suggested that a move towards $31,000 for Bitcoin is reasonable based on the historical trajectory.
“So my assumption is that the price in the fourth halving, i.e. the next halving, will be 100% from the bottom at $15,500, which is about $31,000. And with BTC reversing after the launch of the ETF, a move towards $31,000 is not that far-fetched, because it was a A very important resistance for the majority of 2023 and therefore acts as a magnet.
Bitcoin catalyst
With the ETF not meeting expectations regarding Bitcoin price movement, attention has turned to other catalysts, particularly the upcoming halving event scheduled for April. In this case, there are expectations that the ETF will be supplemented by halving.
For example, a previous Finnbold report noted that Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, stated that Bitcoin could trade at $170,000 by 2025, attributing the increase to a combination of ETFs and the halving event.
Despite Bitcoin’s reaction to the ETF, the product’s overall performance has been noteworthy, attracting significant trading volume within days.
Bitcoin price analysis
By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $41,743, seeing daily losses of less than 1% and a weekly decline of more than 2%.
Elsewhere, Bitcoin’s technical analysis reveals bearish sentiment, with the summary of one-day metrics indicating a ‘Neutral’ rating at 7, the moving averages indicating a ‘Sell’ sentiment at 9, and oscillators holding a ‘Buy’ sentiment at 4.
Overall, investors are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s ability to sustain gains above the $40,000 support area.
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