Where do Barbie and Lily Gladstone stand?

Awards Circle Column: Is Sandra Holler headed for double Oscar nominations, and is ‘The Holdovers’ a dark horse for Best Picture?

The BAFTA film nominations provided surprises and surprises with their inclusions (and exclusions) this year.

Always an interesting precursor to the Oscars, the past few years have produced less overlap between them, partly due to jury interference in assembling the nominees. This makes understanding what the BAFTAs mean for the overall awards landscape more complicated given that the juries only exist for the directing and acting races, where most of the shocking events are seen.

Oscar nominations closed earlier this week, so there is no direct impact on voters. Instead, the BAFTA nominations are merely guides to what we’ll see when the nominations are announced.

Here are five things we learned from the BAFTA nominations.

Barbie’s supporters do not appear to be international voters.

A great deal of energy has been spent interpreting the results of the Golden Globe Awards, chosen by an international voting body, in which Barbie performed poorly. It only won for Original Song and the newly created Box Office Achievement category (no Oscar connection). At the same time, at the Critics Choice, the comedy received six respectable awards, including original screenplay and a large number of techniques. However, with the BAFTA award, after making it to 15 longlisted categories, it received only five nominations, which did not include Best Film or Director. It’s not surprising that a movie about a toy would not be very popular with international voters, which is a sign that the voting demographic may not respond as enthusiastically as their domestic counterparts. More cynical observers might think this indicated a possible snub at Greta Gerwig, the first woman to lead a billion-dollar film. Will this lead to a situation similar to what happened when Ben Affleck missed the movie “Argo”? Or as we mentioned during diverse Podcast Roundtable In the awards circuit this week, is the fact that Barbie made it impressive enough?

It is worth noting that another film did not do well at the BAFTA Awards, missing out on Best Picture and Direction – Best Film of 2022, “CODA”. Even last year’s Everything Everywhere at Once racked up seven Oscars after winning its only BAFTA for editing.

Watch out for both of them Jonathan Glazer and Justin Tritt are nominated for Best Director, with Sandra Holler assisting.

Aside from the omissions of Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”) and Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”), what makes parsing the directing lineup more difficult is guessing who the best two are. The vote getters are. According to the rules, the two best directors are automatically nominated, regardless of gender, while the rest are decided by a jury. The safe assumption is that Nolan was among those who sided with Oppenheimer, but who sides with him is up for debate.

What interests me most are the entries of Jonathan Glazer in “The Zone of Interest” and Justine Tritt, who expertly convey the power of “Anatomy of a Fall” in the awards race. In conversations with awards strategists and voters, many believe that both world-class directors could be among the Oscar-nominated directors. But who will replace them is confusing. Could it be any of the three overlooked authors? maybe.

Interestingly, the inclusion of both may be the most significant clue that actress Sandra Holler, who stars in both Anatomy and Zone, could be headed toward a historic double acting nominations for her stunning performance. This will be the first time an actor has been nominated twice for two non-English language shows.

As for Bradley Cooper’s inclusion in the film “Maestro,” aside from the DGA, the multi-hyphenate actor has been among the directors nominated at the CCA, Golden Globes, and now BAFTA. Is it safer than online discourse expects? He definitely shouldn’t count.

Snubbing top actress Lily Gladstone is a huge hurdle to overcome.

Lily Gladstone’s Oscar campaign was dealt a major blow after she declined a Bafta for Killers of the Flower Moon, with her closest rival, Poor Things’ Emma Stone, receiving recognition. Gladstone won the Golden Globe for Actress (Drama) while Stone won for Actress (Comedy). Furthermore, at the Critics’ Choice ceremony, Stone took home the lead actress award, showing a potential race between the two critically acclaimed actresses.

With Gladstone out of BAFTA, that just leaves the SAG Awards as the last chance to gain enough momentum to win the category. Since the jury methods were introduced, the Best Actress race has been the most upended by the changes. In 2020, BAFTA nominated only two actresses for Oscars – Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”) and eventual BAFTA and Academy Award winner Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”). If Carey Mulligan had not been snubbed by the BAFTA for Promising Young Woman, would she have built on her CCA win and Oscar? The world may never know.

In 2021, none of the Oscar nominees were nominated for Best Actress, leaving Academy voters to their own devices and awarding the award to Jessica Chastain for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” the only modern-era winner without a BAFTA. (When the film is eligible).

Gladstone’s snub was disappointing because it is fair to assume that she was among the first six to receive the votes, and the jury chose three others in her place. Under BAFTA rules, the top three vote-getters in the acting categories are nominated, with the judging panel selecting the other three.

Even if Gladstone can win SAG, the BAFTA Awards will provide an opportunity for Stone to continue her momentum, unless dual nominee Sandra Holler can sneak a win, which is possible given how well “Anatomy of a Fall” has done for the group. .

“The Holdovers” is a dark horse contender that no one quite gets it.

Alexander Payne’s heartfelt drama has flown under the radar as a contender since its debut at the Telluride Film Festival, where industry critics and journalists focused on “Barbie,” “Moonflower Killers,” “Oppenheimer” and “Bad Things.” The film received seven notable nominations from the British voting bloc, including among the top five recognized for Best Picture. With two front-runners in the acting lead, Paul Giamatti and Dave Randolph, and a strong contender for the original screenplay, how could it not be considered a troublesome choice in the first race? It could also benefit rising star Dominic Cessa, whose BAFTA nod could indicate he is on his way to recognition.

In case you don’t believe it, Oppenheimer is the one to beat.

The only film to be nominated at every major ceremony and televised ceremony (so far) is “Oppenheimer.” Christopher Nolan’s biographical drama topped the Bafta list with 13 nominations, nearly the maximum of 15 mentioned in the first longlist. It only missed the categories for special visual effects (which did not make the Oscar nomination) and acting (which did not make the Oscar nomination). It could repeat the same leading number in Oscar nominations on Tuesday.