In the past year, and especially in the last quarter, Bitcoin (BTC) – along with much of the cryptocurrency market – has seen a significant rally, rising from around $16,000 in January 2023 to as high as $44,000 in December 2023.
But the beginning of this year was characterized by optimism, uncertainty, and volatility. By press time, the world’s number one cryptocurrency had risen 0.62% over the past 24 hours to a price of $42,875.
Bitcoin’s initial movements were initially driven by widespread expectations and speculation about potential SEC approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the cryptocurrency became more volatile in the wake of ETF approvals on January 10, with Bitcoin rising above $48,000. this year. A month before it decreased significantly.
Moreover, within three months, another event is likely to have a significant impact on the price of the digital asset – the Bitcoin halving.
With these hopes, fears and doubts in mind, and with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) recently launching its artificial intelligence (AI) platform – Copilot – based on OpenAI’s ChatGPT 4 model – Finbold decided to roll out the Large Language Model (LLM) on Where You Might Find BTC Same in late 2024.
Three versions, one methodology
While other AI platforms also offer their users a choice of different templates and plugins, Microsoft’s Copilot is modular and allows for three distinct conversational tones – balanced, precise and creative.
With that in mind, Feinbold decided to give the same set of prompts to each “tone” and see how their estimates might differ. Initially, the AI was given a broad framework of conversation – a hypothetical scenario aimed at arriving at a reasonable estimate.
The decision to pre-empt the conversation with the disclaimer that there is an understanding that the scenario is largely speculative is largely driven by experiences with ChatGPT – a platform that is very afraid of price speculation unless it is told in no uncertain terms that there is speculation. He understood that, in fact, he could not reliably see the future.
The second and main prompt was intended to explain the task in detail. Setting the range at no more than $3,000 is a result of past experience – in the wildest case in memory – another AI platform estimated that Bitcoin would be worth between $9,000 and $250,000 within a few months.
Copilot estimates the price of Bitcoin in late 2024
Copilot’s balanced and creative positions offer exactly the same price range as a likely place where Bitcoin might find itself at the end of 2024 – between $60,000 and $63,000. The main difference, it turns out, was in their justification for the estimated range.
Creative Copilot briefly touched on several key points – the AI stated that the halving would likely lead to higher prices and that ETF approvals would boost interest, exposure and liquidity. It also cited Ethereum 2.0 as a major competitor to Bitcoin and made it clear that it considers the gradual normalization of monetary policy a stabilizing factor.
The balanced co-pilot was noticeably more focused on the calculations surrounding the hemisphere. For example, she explained that, based on historical data, she expects post-halving bitcoin to rise to 1.5% of its previous highs – rising to $97,295 – but added that she believes it is safe to assume a correction of between 33%. And 41% leads to its estimated range of $60,000-$63,000.
As its name suggests, Precise Copilot was more reluctant to speculate and fell on a very conservative price range at the end of the year – between $45,000 and $48,000.
This “tone” also offered little explanation for the estimate other than that it assumes a continuation of the trends and factors I explained earlier – the broader exposure offered by ETFs, the potential impact of the halving, the move towards a somewhat clearer regulatory framework, and broad economic factors.
Disclaimer: The content on this website should not be considered as investment advice. Investing is speculation. When you invest, your capital is at risk.