The Allianz CEO says the divide between political elites and the working class poses a major risk

The Allianz Risk Barometer published this month indicated that political risks were already at a five-year high in 2023, with around 100 countries considered to be at high or severe risk of civil unrest.

This is expected to deepen in 2024, amid continuing economic difficulties, especially in “countries experiencing debt crises.” Meanwhile, protest groups advocating a range of causes are expected to cause greater unrest.

In response to a question on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, about what he considers to be the main global threat at the present time, Butt pointed to the lack of confidence of the population in their governments across major democracies.

“You saw the last elections in the Netherlands, you saw this in France, and societies are polarized because our leaders are not dealing with the needs of the people,” he said.

Last year, massive protests broke out in France against the pension reforms approved by President Emmanuel Macron, and the killing of teenager Nahil Marzouk at the hands of a police officer, leading to severe violence and property damage.

The Allianz Risk Barometer report also noted that populist and far-right political forces expanded their influence with electoral success in the Netherlands and Slovakia, reinforcing an emerging trend that began in 2022, when “Italy elected a party with neo-fascist roots, and Hungary returned a party with neo-fascist roots.” Viktor Orban was elected, and the far-right Sweden Democrats party received 20% of the votes in the general elections.

“We have an increasing disconnection of the political elite from the working class and the people who go to work every day, and that is what I consider to be the number one danger to our societies,” Paty said.

“And remember, a lot of people will be voting this year, so we need to make sure they’re voting for the right things and not just venting their anger.”

Along with the risks surrounding elections in Europe and the United States, conflicts or unrest have also erupted in several African countries in recent years, with successful coups occurring in Niger and Gabon in 2023 following a regime change in Burkina Faso in September 2022.

“Although these coups have been relatively peaceful, Sudan is rapidly escalating into civil war, especially in the capital, Khartoum,” Srdjan Todorovic, head of political violence and hostile environment solutions at Allianz Commercial, said in the Allianz Risk Barometer report.

He added, “Economic difficulties pose a challenge to many countries, especially Tunisia, which has been teetering on the brink of violence as President (Kais) Saied continues to rule by decree and without a parliament.”