In the latter part of last week, gold rose strongly after a stunning drop in Treasury yields dragged down real yields and the US dollar. This ultimately pushed gold higher because it is inversely related to real yields. In the big picture, gold should remain supported amid expectations of a rate cut, but in the short term, given current strong pricing, the main risk is that economic data suddenly starts to pick up or Fed members push back more aggressively against market expectations. . Expectations.
Technical analysis of gold – daily time frame
Daily gold
On the daily chart, we can see that gold bounced on a major trend line where we also had the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level to meet and rose to the 2060 level. Buyers should now target the 2080 resistance area and, upon a successful breakout, look to a new high on Launch. On the other hand, sellers are likely to intervene around the 2080 resistance level to take another corrective position in the trend line.
Technical analysis of gold – time frame 4 hours
Gold 4 hours
On the 4-hour chart, we can see that last Friday the price broke above the downtrend line and extended its rise to the 2060 level before pulling back to retest the broken trendline. We now have a strong support area around the 2042 level where we can find a confluence with old resistance, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect buyers to gather, in the event of another pullback, in order to prepare. To rise to the 2080 resistance level.
Technical analysis of gold – 1 hour time frame
Gold 1 hour
On the 1-hour chart, we can closely see the recent price action with the trend line breakout and subsequent retest. Sellers will likely rally around these levels to put them in a position to pull back to the 2042 support and on a break below it, increase bearish bets on the key uptrend line around the 2020 level. Should we fail to see another pullback, buyers will look to increase bullish bets on a break. Above the peak of 2063.
Upcoming events
Tomorrow, all eyes will be on Fed Chairman Waller, as the market will be eager to see if he decides to back down on expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts. On Wednesday, we will get the US Retail Sales report while on Thursday we will see the latest US Unemployment Claims numbers. Finally, on Friday, we wrap up the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey.
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