- Twitter confirms that @SECGov has been hacked, and two-factor authentication is not enabled
- JP Morgan warns that terrorist attacks in the Red Sea lead to higher shipping costs and inflation
- Russian crude oil exports declined in the first week of 2024 by 500,000 barrels per day
- Chinese stocks are taking a beating again today
- AUD/USD is tracking slightly higher despite beating CPI data
- Bank of England Governor Bailey and other senior officials were summoned before Parliament on Wednesday
- European Central Bank Vice President Louis de Guindos speaks on Wednesday
- The People’s Bank of China set the midpoint of USD/CNY today at 7.1055 (vs. estimate of 7.1618)
- The Houthis launch the largest attack so far on commercial ships in the Red Sea
- A senior official at the People’s Bank of China hints at further easing in the future
- Australian CPI November – 4.3% y/y (4.4% expected)
- New Zealand export prices rise, global shipping costs jump
- Peru declares a state of emergency on the northern border with Ecuador
- Twitter is investigating the SEC account hack that led to Bitcoin disruption
- Japan’s November wage data shows another deep decline
- The European Central Bank’s Centeno points to earlier-than-expected interest rate cuts
- The Swiss National Bank expects an annual loss of about 3 billion Swiss francs
- BNP Paribas AM says the ECB is likely to cut interest rates before the Fed – in March or April
- Amazon’s Twitch plans to lay off 500 employees (about 35% of employees)
- JPMorgan on warning signs for stocks as inflation stalls and risks rise
- ‘Irregular activity’ reported in Red Sea – Multiple reports of drone activity
- Forexlive Americas FX News Cover January 9. Confusion reigns over Bitcoin ETF approval.
- The SEC will never give in to this
- Oil – A special inventory survey showed a much larger draw than expected
- Eight reasons why a Bitcoin ETF is a “sell the truth” trade.
- The SEC says no Bitcoin ETFs have been approved
- SEC Account Hacked to Announce Bitcoin ETFs Approved, But They Weren’t
- Trade Ideas Topic – Wednesday, January 10, Insightful Charts, Technical Analysis, Ideas
- US stocks close mixed. Nasdaq closed with slight gains
Late in the afternoon, news came over the wire that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved spot bitcoin ETFs. The only problem is that the “news” was fake, and that the SEC’s Twitter account had been hacked. SEC Chairman Gensler followed up on the fake tweet, saying approval had not yet been granted.
Bitcoin went on a wild price ride. After highs of over $47,800, the price fell sharply and was around $46,150 upon update.
Data out of Japan today showed that Japanese workers’ wage growth slowed sharply in November 2023. The Bank of Japan is awaiting a virtuous cycle of wage increases and price increases (demand-triggered inflation, not the kind of inflation that drives prices up in Japan). (yet which the bank says is unsustainable) as a prerequisite for the normalization of monetary policy. They did not get any evidence of that today. The wait continues for wage negotiations in the spring.
The yen fell during the session, and USD/JPY is just above 144.80 as I update and not far from its intraday high.
From Australia today we get monthly inflation data for November 2023. The headline came in at 4.3%, beating the estimate of 4.4% (lower than expected at this time) and the lowest level since January 2022. Core inflation measures also fell. behind. The average cut came in at 4.6% year-on-year from 5.3% in October.
As previously published:
- The monthly CPI data from Australia does not show all components of the CPI, which will have to wait for the release of the quarterly data.
- However, the monthly CPI provides a timely signal of inflation using the same data collected for use in the quarterly CPI. The monthly reading includes updated prices ranging between 62 and 73 percent of the weight of the quarterly CPI basket, which is not the full picture.
- The November result includes data for most services, which has the RBA concerned about flat inflation.
- The full quarterly reading will be on January 31, 2024 for the October to December 2023 quarter.
- While the decline in November is encouraging, and will reduce the likelihood of the RBA raising interest rates in February somewhat, it is the Q4 data that is most important.
AUD/USD trading rose despite encouraging inflation data.
In oil-related news, oil inventory data (special survey) published during the afternoon in the US showed a much larger draw than expected. In the Red Sea, it was the largest attack to date launched by Iran-backed Houthi terrorists against commercial shipping ships. US Navy and allied forces repelled the attack. Oil gave up a few of Tuesday’s gains.
And this is a file!
There are still central bank spokespeople from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, see points above.